1918 words 7 minute read – Let’s do this!
Happy Thursday from all of us at Port X Logistics! If anyone thought September might bring a little calm to the freight market, the supply chain apparently had other plans. U.S. imports are running stronger than expected, fuel costs are climbing, Panama Canal restrictions are tightening and peak-season volume is beginning to put more pressure on drayage and inland networks. This week, we’re cutting through the noise and looking at what actually matters for shippers — because in this market, knowing where the next pressure point could appear is half the battle. And don’t forget to follow Port X Logistics on LinkedIn for real-time insights—or have our Thursday Market Updates delivered straight to your inbox by reaching out to Marketing@portxlogistics.com.
U.S. import peak season apparently isn’t ready to leave just yet. The latest Global Port Tracker forecast now projects September imports at approximately 2.31 million TEUs, potentially making it the busiest month of 2026. That’s a significant change from earlier expectations that the unusually early peak season would largely be behind us by now. Several factors are keeping containers moving. Some cargo originally expected earlier in the summer was delayed by severe weather and congestion in China, while Panama Canal restrictions have caused some shipments to be delayed or rerouted. At the same time, consumer demand has remained resilient enough that retailers continue replenishing inventory even after pulling significant holiday merchandise forward earlier this year. The strength is already visible at the ports – Interestingly, much of the holiday freight that traditionally drives late peak season is already in the country. That means September’s strength isn’t simply Christmas decorations and retail inventory arriving late. Delayed cargo, continued replenishment and a broader mix of imports are extending the cycle.
What It Means for Shippers
Don’t assume September automatically means easier capacity. Strong import volumes can translate into temporary pressure at terminals, rail ramps, warehouses and drayage markets even if ocean demand begins cooling later in the fall. Importers should keep monitoring actual vessel arrivals rather than relying solely on original schedules and communicate expected container volume with drayage and warehouse partners as early as possible. Peak season may have started early this year — but apparently nobody told it when to leave.
Another transportation cost is moving quickly in the wrong direction: fuel. U.S. on-highway diesel averaged $5.967 per gallon for the week of September 7, according to the Energy Information Administration, up from $5.599 just one week earlier. That’s a jump of nearly 37 cents per gallon in seven days. In the Central Atlantic region, diesel has moved above $6 per gallon. The pressure is connected to a much larger global energy story. Brent crude climbed above $105 per barrel on Thursday as attacks on shipping in the Middle East intensified and concerns increased over energy flows through the region. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen sharply. Preliminary vessel-tracking data showed just seven commodity vessels transiting the Strait on Wednesday, compared with a 10-day average of 14. At the same time, continued instability around the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb is keeping another critical shipping corridor under pressure. For trucking, the impact doesn’t require an actual fuel shortage. Higher wholesale energy costs eventually work their way into retail diesel pricing, and fuel surcharges can move quickly because many transportation contracts use weekly EIA diesel prices in their calculations. The EIA is also forecasting U.S. distillate inventories — which include diesel — to fall below 100 million barrels during September and remain below the recent five-year range through the end of 2026 and much of 2027. Fall refinery maintenance and seasonal agricultural demand add another layer of pressure.
What It Means for Shippers
Start paying attention to the fuel line on transportation invoices again. A contract truck rate may remain unchanged while the actual landed transportation cost rises through fuel surcharges. The same issue can affect drayage, truckload, LTL and other fuel-sensitive transportation services. For longer-haul freight, this is also a good time to compare truck and intermodal options where transit requirements allow. Most importantly, don’t budget transportation based solely on the base rate. If Middle East disruptions continue and diesel remains elevated, fuel could become one of the more meaningful freight-cost variables heading into the fourth quarter.
The Panama Canal’s water problem isn’t improving — and additional restrictions are now coming into view. The Canal has already reduced available daily transit slots as below-normal rainfall continues to pressure its freshwater supply. Beginning September 3, available slots were adjusted to nine daily Neopanamax transits and 25 Panamax transits. On September 15, Panamax availability is scheduled to fall again to 23 slots per day. And there could be further reductions. Canal officials are evaluating conditions closely as rainfall remains well below expectations despite Panama being in its rainy season. The Canal depends heavily on freshwater stored in Gatun and Alhajuela lakes, making prolonged dry conditions an operational issue rather than simply a weather story. The Canal has also changed how some available slots are allocated. Container vessels, vehicle carriers and refrigerated ships are grouped together in one auction category, while full container vessels with the highest TEU capacity receive priority in certain Neopanamax allocations. That matters because Panama remains a critical connection between Asia and the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts. Fewer transit opportunities don’t automatically mean every container ship waits in line, but they reduce flexibility throughout the network. Carriers can adjust schedules, secure reservations, pay for auction slots or ultimately change routing when economics dictate. The effects can therefore appear in several places: longer transit times, schedule changes, vessel bunching, higher carrier operating costs and potentially additional surcharges.
What It Means for Shippers
If your cargo is moving from Asia to the U.S. East or Gulf Coast, don’t assume the routing just because you know the destination port. Ask whether the service transits Panama, whether the carrier has changed its rotation and whether any Canal-related surcharge applies. For time-sensitive freight, comparing West Coast plus rail against all-water East Coast service may also be worthwhile. The cheapest ocean rate doesn’t necessarily produce the lowest landed cost if a routing adds days of uncertainty. Panama isn’t shutting down — but every reduction in available slots removes a little more cushion from an already tightly coordinated container network.
The ocean side isn’t the only place where peak season pressure is beginning to show. The U.S. drayage market is tightening as strong import volumes move through major gateways. Import frontloading, higher diesel prices, chassis availability and tighter driver qualification requirements are all contributing to a more complicated environment, particularly in high-volume markets including Southern California and New York/New Jersey. At the same time, rail networks remain generally fluid, but certain inland hubs are beginning to experience tighter equipment availability and higher dwell as import cargo moves inland. Chicago, Atlanta, Fort Worth and Memphis are among the markets worth watching as September volumes work their way through the network. This is where strong port volume can create a second wave of supply-chain pressure.
A container may arrive at the marine terminal without a problem, but it still needs a chassis, driver, appointment and receiving location. Inland rail freight must also move through terminals and be picked up quickly enough to keep equipment cycling through the network. When containers begin arriving in bunches — particularly after overseas weather delays — those resources can become temporarily constrained even when overall trucking capacity looks adequate nationally. Higher diesel prices add another complication. Drayage is particularly sensitive to operating efficiency because drivers can spend significant portions of their day waiting at terminals, rail ramps and customer facilities. When fuel is expensive and truck turns decline, the cost of inefficiency increases quickly.
What It Means for Shippers
This is a good week to focus on the handoff between ocean and inland transportation. Provide drayage partners with forecasts before containers hit the terminal, make receiving appointments early and return empty equipment as quickly as possible. Where facilities allow it, drop-and-hook or container-drop programs can help improve truck utilization compared with lengthy live unloads. And for long-haul inland moves, intermodal can provide another option when truck capacity becomes expensive or difficult to secure. The freight market isn’t experiencing a nationwide capacity crisis. But September is creating exactly the type of environment where localized problems can appear quickly. The common theme across everything we’re watching this week is less cushion. Stronger-than-expected imports, higher fuel costs, tighter Panama Canal availability and pressure on inland transportation aren’t individually enough to break the supply chain. Put them together, however, and small disruptions have less room to be absorbed. For shippers, flexibility and visibility remain the best defense. Know where your freight is, know what happens after it hits the port and have a backup plan before you actually need one.
TEU volumes went up 3.53% over last week, with majority coming into New York/New Jersey 16%, Los Angeles 17.2% and Long Beach 14.2%
What’s happening at the ports and rails?: LA/LGB: The Port of Los Angeles just wrapped up the busiest three-month stretch in its history, moving more than 2.9 million TEUs from June through August. August alone reached 955,907 TEUs, with loaded imports totaling 500,302 TEUs — about 7% above the port’s five-year August average. Even more interesting, September is shaping up to remain strong despite much of this year’s holiday cargo arriving earlier than usual. Resilient consumer demand, inventory replenishment and a broader mix of cargo are helping extend what has already been an unusually long import season.
What It Means for Shippers
Strong volume doesn’t automatically mean congestion, and LA has demonstrated it can handle historically high throughput efficiently. But concentrated vessel arrivals can still create temporary pressure on drayage, chassis, rail and warehouse appointments. Keep watching actual vessel arrival patterns and secure inland capacity early. Peak season may have started early this year — but apparently nobody told it when to leave.
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