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Port of Savannah

1893 words  7 ½ minute read – Let’s do this!

Welcome to the final Market Update of November — the one where the freight market slows down, the news cycle takes a nap, and all of us collectively shift our focus to what really matters: eating like we trained for it and shopping like it’s an Olympic sport. With ports and rail ramps running smooth and steady, the timing couldn’t be better for a mini-break before we all dive headfirst into turkey, stuffing, pies, leftovers, and the glorious madness of Black Friday sales. But don’t worry — before we slip into our food comas and battle for discounted air fryers, we’ve got one last rundown of everything happening beneath the surface: trucking capacity shakeups, the ripple effects of paused China vessel fees, and Los Angeles creeping toward a historic TEU milestone. Keep your logistics game strong — follow Port X Logistics on LinkedIn or subscribe at Marketing@PortXLogistics.com for Thursday Market Updates that keep you one step ahead of the chaos.

Lower import and export volumes have kept U.S. ports and rail ramps running smoothly this fall. November’s activity mirrors October: terminals across the West, East, and Gulf coasts — along with major inland rail hubs — continue to operate at normal, fluid levels with minimal congestion. But stability on the surface doesn’t mean the landscape is standing still. Several developing factors could reshape capacity and service as we head toward 2026.  The prolonged freight recession continues to thin the trucking sector. Elevated operating costs, weak rates, and tighter margins have pushed many small and mid-sized carriers out of the market. At the same time, federal actions targeting non-domiciled CDL holders and stricter English-proficiency enforcement could sideline a significant portion of the current driver pool. Some analysts estimate up to 600,000 drivers may ultimately be affected.  If these trends continue, shippers could face meaningful capacity pressure — even in a low-volume environment.  November also brought a noticeable jump in West Coast trucking activity. Many shippers appear to be securing capacity early or shifting freight patterns to get ahead of potential shortages. It’s too early to call it a trend, but it’s a movement worth watching as network planning for 2026 ramps up. For now, port and rail operations remain steady. But underlying structural changes — especially in trucking — could introduce volatility next year. Keeping a close eye on driver availability and shifting freight patterns will be critical as the industry enters 2026.

The short-lived China vessel fees may have been paused, but the conversation they sparked is far from over. For carriers servicing U.S. exporters — including those bringing agricultural commodities into our transload and inland networks — any unexpected spike in operating cost eventually finds its way into the total landed cost. And in a low-rate, low-volume environment, even small policy changes can reverberate quickly across the supply chain. Cosco and OOCL reportedly paid tens of millions in the first week alone. If these fees had continued, analysts projected potential exposure into the billions by 2026. That kind of overhead inevitably translates into higher freight rates, tighter capacity allocations, or both. 

From a Port X standpoint, we’re watching two layers closely: 

Export behavior:
China’s soybean buys are still lagging, with Brazil maintaining a heavy lead. Softer export flows can shift chassis balance, backhaul opportunities, and equipment availability at key hubs — especially LA/LB, Houston, and Norfolk. 

Carrier cost structures:
If carriers face unpredictable expenses, we often see schedule shifts, blank sailings, and equipment repositioning ripple into our port drayage, transloads, and inland trucking timelines.  The larger takeaway mirrors what Friedmann emphasized: if the U.S. wants its own maritime strength, investment in domestic shipyard capacity — like Hanwha’s Philadelphia expansion — is a more productive route than fees that ultimately land on U.S. shippers. 

In a month where TEU forecasts are already soft — with U.S. ports trending lower sequentially into December — the pause on China vessel fees removes a major wild card from the cost stack. Had the fees stayed active, China carriers like Cosco and OOCL were on track to absorb hundreds of millions in new charges, which would have ultimately raised export rates right as volumes are thinning. 

Exporters are already navigating a shifting demand picture. China has imported roughly 42M tons of soybeans from Brazil this year versus about 16M tons from the U.S. during January–July. Even with last month’s trade commitments, actual forward bookings remain far lighter than promised. 

Higher carrier costs + weaker export pull-through = potential equipment imbalances and more volatility in port operations — especially at West Coast gateways. 

Long-term, maritime competitiveness is pointing toward reinvestment rather than penalties. The SHIPS Act, Hanwha’s $5B Philadelphia shipyard expansion, MSC’s U.S.-flag move, and CMA CGM’s proposed $20B U.S. maritime investment all suggest a pivot toward rebuilding domestic capability instead of taxing foreign tonnage.  For now, the fee pause reduces immediate rate pressure — but the underlying dynamics of tariffs, TEU softness, and export uncertainty remain very much in play. 

TEU’s are up 1.03% over last week, with majority coming into Los Angeles 13.1%, Long Beach 12.7% and New York/New Jersey 12.7%.  The Port of Los Angeles delivered another solid month in October, moving 848,431 TEUs and keeping pace with what could become a record-setting year. According to Executive Director Gene Seroka, the nation’s busiest gateway is now within striking distance of the 10-million-TEU mark — a threshold reached only twice in its history and unmatched anywhere else in the Western Hemisphere.  Through the first ten months of 2025, total throughput reached 8.66 million TEUs, running about 2% ahead of last year. Seroka credited the port’s steady performance to the reliability of its longshore workforce and terminal partners, whose consistency has kept operations fluid in a season defined by shifting demand and political uncertainty. 

But the strong October numbers don’t necessarily signal a full Q4 surge. Importers pulled significant cargo forward earlier this year to stay ahead of potential tariff actions, which means November and December are likely to track softer against 2024. This aligns with what we’re seeing across retail and manufacturing sectors, where inventories remain well above seasonal norms. 

October Snapshot 

• Loaded imports: 429,283 TEUs (down 7% year-over-year) 

• Loaded exports: 123,768 TEUs (up 1% year-over-year) 

• Empty containers: 295,380 TEUs (down 8% year-over-year) 

The decline in empty outbound units — often a signal for future import strength — partially reflects carriers redistributing equipment and adjusting vessel rotations in response to ongoing tariff policy shifts. Some of that traffic has diverted north, where Canadian ports saw meaningful increases tied to China’s evolving trade strategy. 

At the Port of Vancouver, first-half container volumes rose 6% year-over-year as China shippers shifted flows away from U.S. gateways earlier in the year. Prince Rupert saw an even more dramatic jump — a 56% spike in total volume this October — as carriers repositioned vessels and reworked schedules ahead of the now-paused U.S. fees targeting China-built and China-operated ships. 

With six weeks left in the year, all eyes are on Los Angeles to see whether it can cross the 10-million-TEU mark once again — and how shifting tariff policies, inventory levels, and carrier routing decisions will shape the close of peak season.