““Wonder this time where she’s gone, Wonder if she’s gone to stay”…

Port of Long Beach

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“Ain’t No Sunshine When the Boxes Slow” As the first week of August rolls in, the heat isn’t just in the weather—it’s in the whiplash of the logistics market. Here’s what is going down
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We’re seeing a notable shift in who controls container bookings on the trans-Pacific trade – and it’s happening at the point of origin.  As U.S. tariffs dig deeper into global supply chains, more exporters – especially out of China – are taking the lead on booking ocean freight. Instead of U.S. importers purchasing space Free on Board (FOB), exporters are increasingly arranging shipments under Cost, Insurance and Freight (CIF) or Delivered Duty Paid (DDP) terms. This trend, known as origin-controlled cargo, reflects a broader strategy to absorb the unpredictability of tariffs and freight rates.  Forwarders are confirming the change. One major 3PL reports that origin-controlled cargo now makes up over a third of its volumes, up significantly from just a few years ago – and it’s projected to hit 40–45% soon. Smaller U.S. importers may be leaning into DDP shipping terms to shift tariff and duty risk upstream, allowing overseas suppliers to handle freight and customs clearance all the way to final delivery. 

Volatility in the freight market also plays a role. When rates are swinging and capacity tightens, retailers with leverage—like Walmart—are more likely to push suppliers toward CIF/DDP terms, helping shield themselves from rate spikes and port delays. In calmer times, they may revert back to FOB and manage transportation directly under their own contracts. Digitalization is adding fuel to the fire. With easy online booking tools from carriers like Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and CMA CGM, it’s never been simpler for overseas shippers to book space independently – bypassing traditional U.S.-controlled logistics chains. 

While the contract market still leans heavily toward U.S.-based control, that could change. As global brands from Asia—especially Chinese, Japanese, and Korean companies—establish their own sales arms in the U.S. and Europe, they may consolidate freight buying at origin, just as their predecessors in South Korea and Japan did years ago.  This isn’t just a tactical shift – it’s a strategic rebalancing of global freight power. And it’s one that U.S. importers and logistics providers need to watch closely.

Tariff Watch: The Clock is Ticking 

• With the China tariff pause deadline looming (August 12th), importers are moving up shipments “just in case.” 

• Expect preemptive front-loading to spike in the coming week—especially on electronics, tools, and auto parts. 

• New 50% tariffs on Brazil-origin steel & copper officially kicked in on August 1st. Expect ripple effects in Gulf port volumes this month. 

 
Port Volumes: Slipping into Slow Season? 

The “peak” in peak season might already be behind us. Import volumes at major U.S. container ports showed signs of softening: 

• Port of LA: Weekly import TEUs dipped below 120K, down 6.2% week-over-week and pacing 10% behind July’s peak. 

• Port of Savannah: Still busy—but gate congestion has eased slightly, with shorter truck turn times reported early this week. 

• Port of NY/NJ: Steady flows, but forwarders report increased blank sailings announced for late August. 

Rates & Booking Trends: Softening or Strategic? 

• Ocean spot rates from Asia to the West Coast dropped slightly this week after 3 months of gains—but are still 30–40% above last year. 

• Carriers are using blank sailings and slow steaming to balance capacity—expect this dance to continue into September. 

• Booking windows are tightening. Some NVOs report rollover risk returning for small-volume BCOs without allocation agreements. 

Inland Moves & Rail: Headaches That Won’t Quit 

While headlines haven’t broken this week, long-standing operational challenges continue to shape the inland container market: 

• As rail carriers rebalance networks ahead of late Q3 demand shifts, there’s growing pressure on low-margin intermodal lanes, especially out of the Midwest. Spot rates have shown gradual upward movement, though volatility remains lane-specific. 

• In the transload-heavy LA/LB corridor, activity has normalized somewhat compared to July’s peak weeks—but facility utilization still hovers around 80–85%, leaving limited room for last-minute bookings or overflow. 

These aren’t new disruptions—but their persistence reinforces the need for proactive planning, and flexible routing strategies heading into the back half of 2025.

Import TEUs are up 2.235% this week from last week – with the highest volumes coming into Los Angeles 17.1%, Long Beach 14.5% and NY/NJ 12.7%.  What to Watch Next Week: 

• Tariff decision: All eyes on August 12th  – will Trump extend the truce with China, or are 25–50% tariffs back on deck? 

• Hurricane season: Tropical systems developing in the Atlantic could begin impacting Southeast port ops by mid-August. 

• Retail restocks: Back-to-school and early holiday orders are expected to move inland—watch for a dry van capacity crunch in the Midwest.