With less than a month before the International Longshoremen’s Association’s (ILA) contract with the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) is set to expire – Will there be a strike? In my opinion, as of right now, it is looking increasingly likely that the ILA will strike again in January. Negotiations have yet to resume and both sides have released statements that suggest they are willing to allow another strike. Automation is still an area that the ILA leadership are very concerned about, but also that they’re going to continually assert that their jobs can’t be replaced by automation. In October, ocean carriers ended up having to agree to a 62% pay increase to the union, and they may be hesitant to go down the same road especially given the possibility that president-elect Trump will back the union.
When the contract is all set and done, it is easier for ocean carriers to go to all the U.S. importers and exporters and basically either tell them their base rates have gone up by ‘X’ amount of dollars’ or ‘let’s introduce a new surcharge. In conclusion as I see it – yes, rate increases are inevitable. Congestion is inevitable. Disruption is inevitable.
As the January 15th date gets closer, there will be a continuation of shippers switching ports away from the East and Gulf coasts, front-loading freight, adjusting inventory needs, and pivoting to air freight. And a strike will also pile on to several other geopolitical issues shippers are looking out for in 2025, including potential imposed tariffs by President Trump.
More “Big Box” brick and mortar Companies are closing in favor of E-commerce – like BK said “Another big player enters the drayage market”
What about the Panama Canal? The Panama Canal Association is planning to build a tunnel from a river to the west of the Canal to a dam to feed the Gatun Lake as a long-term solution to avoid the lack of water seen in 2023. Construction may start in 2025/2026 and is slated to take five/six years at a cost of around 1.6 Billion US Dollars. The scheme has been approved by the government, and talks are underway with local communities as some villages and land will have to be flooded. Until then we still have to rely on rain, but as mentioned, 2025 is looking ok in this respect. We’ll have a better idea in the next six months regarding 2026. Expensive expansion planned but no immediate Band-aid for 2025 – stay tuned…
RFK wants to “Make America Healthy Again” Say goodbye to Red Dye 40. Although the coveted LD Christmas tree cakes could be a thing of the past, in the long run we can say hello to longer life expectancy – not a bad trade off, but a healthy initiative will require some major economic changes and budgets.
Labor shortages are still a real thing and it is really prominent in the trucking industry. To date, the American Trucking Association estimated shortages of around 80,000 truck drivers largely due to an aging workforce which are continuing to retire and not enough drivers entering the profession to replace them.
-IF the Montana State Bobcats do not win the FCS National Championship, we are doomed for a cursed year. Just Kidding! They WILL win. Period.
Buffalo Bills all the way – a Buffalo Superbowl win is way past due: All hail our #17 Savior. Besides, Buffalo wing sauce is way better than Kansas City BBQ sauce. Change my mind.